Q4 Amazon Strategy: How to Win Black Friday and Cyber Monday

Winning Q4 on Amazon requires a strategy that starts in August and runs through January, covering Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the entire holiday shopping season. At Marknology in Kansas City, where we manage over $2B in Amazon revenue across 300+ brands, Q4 is the single most important quarter of the year for every client we work with. I am Andrew Morgans, and after managing Q4 for hundreds of brands over the past decade, the difference between brands that crush it and brands that struggle comes down to preparation, inventory depth, and disciplined advertising.

When Does Q4 Actually Start on Amazon?

On Amazon, Q4 effectively starts in early October with Prime Big Deal Days and runs through mid-January when holiday returns stabilize. The critical selling window breaks down like this:

• October: Prime Big Deal Days (early holiday shoppers, gift list building)
• Early November: Gradual traffic increase, deal browsing begins
• Black Friday Week: Major sales surge, highest deal volume of the year
• Cyber Monday: Single highest sales day on Amazon for most categories
• December 1-15: Gift buying peak, conversion rates at annual highs
• December 16-24: Last-minute shoppers, gift cards surge, FBA cutoff dates hit
• December 26 to January: Gift card redemption, returns processing, New Year purchases

We still have a lot of year left to go. We have Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and everybody knows that the season just gets more compact because everything ships so fast. But I think the brands that are still in the game need to think about inventory. The number one way to win is simply to have your product in stock. Do not run out. - Andrew Morgans on Startup Hustle

How Should You Plan Q4 Inventory?

Q4 inventory planning is the highest-stakes logistics decision you will make all year. Here is the Marknology framework:

• Calculate Q4 demand: Take last year's Q4 units sold and add 15% to 25% for growth. If this is your first Q4, multiply your current daily run rate by 3x to 5x
• Ship by September 15: FBA receiving times extend to 3 to 6 weeks during Q4. Get your main inventory shipment in by mid-September
• Stagger replenishment: Send a second smaller shipment in early November as a safety net
• Monitor IPI weekly: Amazon reduces storage limits for sellers with IPI scores below 400. Check weekly starting in August
• Diversify fulfillment: Set up FBM or a 3PL backup. If FBA runs out, you can still fulfill orders

The biggest Q4 inventory mistake I see is brands that underestimate demand. It is always better to have 20% too much inventory than to stock out during Black Friday week. Excess inventory can be sold through in January. Lost sales and rank from a stockout take months to recover.

What Deal Types Work Best for BFCM?

Amazon offers several deal types during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Here is what works best:

Deal Type	Best For	Cost
Lightning Deal	Short burst of traffic, urgency	$500 to $1,000+ during BFCM
Best Deal (7-Day)	Sustained visibility all week	$1,000+ during BFCM
Prime Exclusive Discount	Badge on listing, no fee	Free (discount cost only)
Coupon	Green badge, broad appeal	$0.60 per clip redemption

My recommendation for most brands: run a Best Deal or Lightning Deal on your top 2 to 3 products and use coupons on everything else. The combination gives you deal page visibility on your hero products and conversion rate boosts across your entire catalog.

What Is the Best Q4 Advertising Strategy?

Q4 advertising on Amazon is a different game. Traffic surges, competition intensifies, and conversion rates climb. Here is how we manage it at Marknology:

• October: Maintain steady budgets, build keyword ranking before competition peaks
• November 1-20: Increase budgets 50%, launch Sponsored Brands Video campaigns, activate DSP retargeting
• Black Friday Week: Increase budgets 2x to 4x, use Top of Search modifiers aggressively, monitor hourly
• Cyber Monday: Peak budget day. Run campaigns 24 hours with no budget caps on top performers
• December 1-15: Maintain elevated budgets. Gift buyers have high intent and conversion rates are strong
• December 16-24: Reduce budgets gradually as FBA shipping cutoffs pass
• Post-Christmas: Maintain presence for gift card redeemers and New Year shoppers

The biggest advertising mistake in Q4 is cutting budgets too early in December. Many sellers pull back after Cyber Monday and miss the December gift-buying surge, which can be 60% to 70% of peak BFCM levels.

As an agency with 50 brands, you have got 50 personalities and 50 different levels of tolerance. We have advertising campaigns running everywhere for all these brands. Understanding everyone's business so I can give them the best advice possible is my job. - Andrew Morgans on Startup Hustle

How Much Should You Spend on Q4 Advertising?

A good rule of thumb: allocate 30% to 40% of your annual advertising budget to Q4. For brands doing $500K to $5M annually on Amazon, that typically means:

• October: 1.5x normal monthly ad spend
• November: 2x to 3x normal monthly ad spend
• December: 1.5x to 2x normal monthly ad spend

The ROI justifies the investment. Conversion rates during Q4 are 30% to 50% higher than the rest of the year, which means your ACoS actually improves even as CPCs rise. More shoppers are ready to buy, and they buy faster.

What Is the Complete Q4 Timeline?

When	Action
August	Finalize Q4 product lineup, begin inventory orders
September	Ship main inventory to FBA, optimize all listings, submit BFCM deals
October	Prime Big Deal Days, build keyword ranking, test ad creative
November	Ramp budgets, execute BFCM, capitalize on momentum
December	Gift season push, manage shipping cutoffs, plan January clearance

What Q4 Mistakes Will Cost You the Most Money?

1. Running out of inventory during BFCM: This is catastrophic. You lose sales, BSR, and organic ranking simultaneously
2. Not submitting deals early enough: BFCM deal slots fill up fast. Submit as soon as the window opens in September
3. Cutting ad budgets after Cyber Monday: December is still peak season. Keep spending
4. Ignoring pricing conflicts: Make sure your Prime Day discounts do not disqualify your BFCM deal pricing
5. Forgetting about January: Gift card redemptions and New Year shoppers create a mini-peak in early January

What Should You Do After Cyber Monday?

The work does not stop after BFCM. Here is your post-Cyber Monday playbook:

• Maintain advertising budgets through December 15 at minimum
• Monitor return rates and address any product quality issues immediately
• Respond to all customer questions within 24 hours (gift recipients have questions)
• Plan January promotions to move excess inventory before Q1 storage fees hit
• Analyze Q4 performance data to inform next year's strategy

At Marknology, we use Q4 data to build the entire next year's strategy for our clients. Every insight from this season feeds directly into our planning process. I also share detailed Q4 breakdowns on the Startup Hustle podcast.