How to Plan Your Amazon Inventory for Holiday Season 2026

Planning Amazon inventory for the 2026 holiday season is the single most important operational decision you will make all year, and getting it wrong in either direction costs you real money. At Marknology in Kansas City, I am Andrew Morgans, and after managing holiday inventory across 300+ brands, I can tell you that the brands who plan their holiday inventory starting in July consistently outperform those who scramble in October. Undershipping costs you sales and organic ranking. Overshipping costs you storage fees and cash flow. The goal is precision.

When Should You Start Planning Holiday Inventory?

Holiday inventory planning should begin in July, six months before peak season. Here is the timeline:

• July: Analyze last year's Q4 data, determine product lineup, place initial manufacturing orders
• August: Finalize order quantities, arrange freight forwarding, book shipping lanes (ocean freight rates spike in September)
• September 1-15: Ship your primary Q4 inventory to FBA. This is the critical deadline
• October: Send replenishment shipments, verify all inventory is received and available
• November: Final top-off shipments for BFCM, activate FBM backup

Amazon's infrastructure in regards to logistics has been at three times the busiest season they have ever had. Brands are experiencing trucks that were supposed to arrive on Monday not arriving until the following Monday. It has been kind of chaos. - Andrew Morgans on Startup Hustle

How Do You Forecast Holiday Demand on Amazon?

Demand forecasting for Amazon Q4 combines historical data with growth projections. Here is the Marknology method:

Step 1: Establish your baseline

• Pull last year's Q4 unit sales by ASIN from your Business Reports
• Note any stockout days (you undersold if you ran out) and add estimated lost units
• Calculate your daily average for October, November, and December separately

Step 2: Apply growth multipliers

• Year-over-year growth rate: If you grew 30% YoY this year, apply at least 20% to Q4 projections
• New advertising investment: If you are increasing ad spend, add 10% to 15% for incremental demand
• Deal participation: Lightning Deals and Best Deals can drive 5x to 10x daily volume during the deal window
• Category growth: Check your category's overall growth rate on Amazon

Step 3: Calculate total units needed

• October: Baseline daily average x 1.5x x 31 days
• November: Baseline daily average x 3x to 5x x 30 days
• December: Baseline daily average x 2x to 3x x 31 days
• January safety buffer: 2 weeks of normal stock

What Are the FBA Shipping Deadlines for Holiday Season?

Amazon's FBA receiving times extend dramatically during Q4. Here are the critical deadlines:

Deadline	What	Why It Matters
September 15	Main Q4 inventory arrives at FBA	Receiving times are still 1 to 2 weeks. After this, delays increase
October 15	Replenishment shipments sent	Receiving times now 2 to 4 weeks. Last reliable window
November 1	Final FBA shipment deadline	Receiving times can hit 4 to 6 weeks. High risk of not being received in time
December 1	FBA customer shipping cutoff approaches	Last day for guaranteed holiday delivery varies by region

How Does Your IPI Score Affect Holiday Inventory?

Your Inventory Performance Index score directly controls how much inventory Amazon lets you store in their warehouses. This is critical for Q4:

• IPI above 500: No storage limits. You can ship freely
• IPI 400 to 500: Storage limits may apply. Monitor closely
• IPI below 400: Significant storage restrictions. You may not be able to ship enough for Q4

Amazon evaluates IPI scores quarterly. The Q3 evaluation (measured in late June/early July) sets your Q4 storage limits. This is why July is not too early to start inventory planning. If your IPI is low, you need months to improve it before the Q4 evaluation window closes.

To improve IPI score: liquidate slow-moving inventory, remove stranded listings, improve sell-through rates, and reduce excess inventory months before Q4.

Why Do You Need a Backup Fulfillment Strategy?

Every brand selling on Amazon during Q4 needs a backup fulfillment plan. FBA is not guaranteed to work flawlessly during peak season. Your options:

• FBM (Fulfilled by Merchant): Ship from your own warehouse or office. Set up FBM listings now so they are ready to activate
• 3PL (Third-Party Logistics): Partner with a 3PL that can handle Amazon orders. Many offer Seller Fulfilled Prime eligibility
• Multi-Channel Fulfillment (MCF): Use Amazon's own MCF service to fulfill orders from other channels

For some of these brands that have relied on FBA for years, this is a wake up call. Being able to handle your own products right now, keep them available today, tomorrow, do not run out, being able to use a different shipping carrier than Amazon's is a benefit. It is a strong benefit for sellers. - Andrew Morgans on Startup Hustle

How Do You Manage Q4 Storage Costs?

Amazon increases storage fees during Q4 (October through December). Monthly storage fees jump from approximately $0.87 per cubic foot to $2.40 per cubic foot. Strategies to manage costs:

• Ship inventory just-in-time rather than months early. Balance receiving time risk against storage costs
• Remove or liquidate slow-moving inventory before October 1 to free up space for Q4 products
• Use Amazon's inventory placement service strategically to control which warehouses receive your products
• Factor storage costs into your Q4 margin calculations. The revenue increase should far outweigh the added fees

What Are the Costliest Holiday Inventory Mistakes?

1. Stocking out during BFCM: A single day of stockout during Black Friday week can erase two months of organic ranking progress
2. Shipping inventory too late: If your shipment arrives at FBA on November 20, it may not be received and available until after BFCM
3. No FBM backup: When FBA runs out and you have no alternative, you lose sales completely
4. Ignoring IPI score: Getting hit with storage limits in Q4 because you did not manage IPI in Q3 is preventable
5. Using only air freight: Emergency air shipments in November cost 5x to 10x what planned ocean freight in August costs

At Marknology, we build holiday inventory plans for every client starting in July. This level of preparation is what separates brands that have record Q4s from brands that leave revenue on the table. Explore our full-service Amazon management or hear more about our approach on the Startup Hustle podcast.